University of Hertfordshire

Fuzzy inference approach to uncertainty in budget preparation and execution

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationLecture Notes in Business Information Processing
PublisherHeidelberg: Springer Verlag
Pages56-70
Number of pages15
Volume250
ISBN (Print)9783319328768
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 18 May 2016
Event2nd International Conference on Decision Support System Technology, ICDSST 2016 - Plymouth, United Kingdom
Duration: 23 May 201625 May 2016

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Business Information Processing
Volume250
ISSN (Print)18651348

Conference

Conference2nd International Conference on Decision Support System Technology, ICDSST 2016
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityPlymouth
Period23/05/1625/05/16

Abstract

In recent times, diverse uncertainties in the global economic environment have made it difficult for most countries to meet their financial obligations. For example, according to statistics from European Commission, 24 out of 29 recorded European Economic Area member countries had budget deficits in 2014. Therefore through modelling and simulations, this paper proposes flexible decision support schemes that could be used in managing the uncertainties in budgeting. Rather than entirely relying on estimates of anticipated revenues (which are uncertain and difficult to predict) in government budgeting, the scheme proposes incorporating fuzzy inference systems (which is able to capture both the present and future uncertainty) in predicting the anticipated revenues and consequently, in proposing government expenditures. The accuracy of fuzzy rule base helps in mitigating adverse effects of uncertainties in budgeting. We illustrated the proposed scheme with a case study which could easily be adapted and implemented in any budgeting scenarios.

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