Developing adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on diseases of wheat and maize and food production in Egypt.

Climate change affects farming crop production systems and threatens
food security in agriculture-based countries like Egypt, where agriculture
accounts for c. 14% of gross domestic production. Climate change will also
directly influence crop diseases, increasing food insecurity by decreasing
crop yields, reducing production from agriculture and increasing numbers of
people at risk of hunger. Wheat and maize are the two main staple food
crops in Egypt. Pests and diseases are estimated to cause yield losses of
c. 20% for these crops.
Our aim is to use the results from the earlier UK-Egyptian collaboration to
assess the occurrence/severity of major fungal diseases of wheat and
maize, their distribution and yield losses for current and future climate
change scenarios in Egypt. To do so, we will develop weather-based
disease models, disease-based yield loss models and crop growth models
for the two crops. Historic crop disease and crop yield data necessary for
developing these models will be provided through associated partners in
the Agricultural Research Center of the Egyptian Ministry of Agriculture.
Agriculture provides 30% of all employment in Egypt. The project will
directly help to reduce the poverty ratio at the national poverty line to 15%,
the unemployment rate to 5% and increase female labour force
participation to 35% by 2030 in the "Sustainable Development Strategy
(SDS): Egypt Vision 2030". The findings will provide clear guidelines for
plant breeders to produce climate-resilient wheat and maize cultivars and
inform policy makers and industry stakeholders with short- to medium-term
recommendations to maintain crop yields to ensure national food security
by minimising the losses from climate change/crop diseases. Project
recommendations and decision-making tools can be applied by other
ODA-recipient countries, particularly in the Mediterranean and
Sub-Saharan regions with similar climates through ICARDA, such as
Lebanon, Sudan, Morocco or Ethiopia for wheat