The role of spatial structure in the infection spread models

A collaborative project with The Crick Institute to develop an infection spread model accurately predicting the dynamics of the outbreaks in time and space. Individual-based models (IBM) had been developed which had a few advantages compared to classical equation-based approach as it used individuals as units and reflected the local variations happening in real life. The model is based on freely available population density map of England. It has been shown that social distancing can reduce the outbreak when applied before or during peak time, but it can also inflict the second wave when relaxed after the peak. This can be explained by a large proportion of susceptible individuals, even in the large cities, after the first wave.