Abstract
Climate change affects plants in natural and agricultural ecosystems
throughout the world but little work has been done on the effects of
climate change on plant disease epidemics. To illustrate such effects, a
weather-based disease forecasting model was combined with a climate
change model predicting UK temperature and rainfall under high and low
carbon emissions for the 2020s and 2050s. Multi-site data collected over
a 15-year period were used to develop and validate a weather-based
model forecasting severity of phoma stem canker epidemics on oilseed
rape across the UK. This was combined with climate change scenarios to
predict that epidemics will not only increase in severity but also spread
northwards by the 2020s
throughout the world but little work has been done on the effects of
climate change on plant disease epidemics. To illustrate such effects, a
weather-based disease forecasting model was combined with a climate
change model predicting UK temperature and rainfall under high and low
carbon emissions for the 2020s and 2050s. Multi-site data collected over
a 15-year period were used to develop and validate a weather-based
model forecasting severity of phoma stem canker epidemics on oilseed
rape across the UK. This was combined with climate change scenarios to
predict that epidemics will not only increase in severity but also spread
northwards by the 2020s
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Arable cropping in a changing climate |
| Publisher | HGCA |
| Pages | 78-86 |
| Publication status | Published - 2008 |
| Event | HGCA R&D Conf - Arable Cropping in a Changing Climate - , United Kingdom Duration: 23 Jan 2008 → 24 Jan 2008 |
Conference
| Conference | HGCA R&D Conf - Arable Cropping in a Changing Climate |
|---|---|
| Country/Territory | United Kingdom |
| Period | 23/01/08 → 24/01/08 |