Comparison of Raman Lidar Observations of Water Vapor with COSMO-DE Forecasts during COPS 2007

Water vapor measurements with the multiwavelength Raman lidar Backscatter Extinction Lidar-Ratio Temperature Humidity Profiling Apparatus (BERTHA) were performed during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) in the Black Forest. Germany. from June to August 2007. For quality assurance, profiles of the water vapor mixing ratio measured with BERTHA are compared to simultaneous measurements of a radiosonde and an airborne differential absorption lidar (DIAL) on 31 July 2007. The differences from the radiosonde observations are found to be on average 1.5% and 2.5% in the residual layer and in the free troposphere, respectively. During the two overflights at 1937 and 2018 UTC, the differences from the DIAL results are -2.2% and -3.7% in the residual layer and 2.1% and -2.6% in the free troposphere. After this performance check, short-range forecasts from the German Meteorological Service's (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) version of the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO-DE) model are compared to the BERTHA measurements for two case studies. Generally, it is found that water vapor mixing ratios from short-range forecasts are on average 7.9% drier than the values measured in the residual layer. In the free troposphere, modeled values are 9.7% drier than the measurements.