Abstract
A method for estimating the true meteor rate lambda from a small number of observed meteors n is derived. We employ Bayesian inference with a Poissonian likelihood function. We discuss the choice of a suitable prior and propose the adoption of Jeffreys prior, P(lambda)=lambda^-0.5, which yields an expectation value E(lambda) = n+0.5 for any n >= 0. We update the ZHR meteor activity formula accordingly, and explain how 68%- and 95%-confidence intervals can be computed.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 126-130 |
Journal | WGN, Journal of the International Meteor Organization |
Volume | 39 |
Issue number | 5 |
Publication status | Published - Oct 2011 |
Keywords
- astro-ph.IM
- stat.AP
- astro-ph.EP