Managing Uncertainty in Production Planning for Fast-Moving Consumer Goods: A Linear Programming and Monte Carlo Simulation Framework

Oladeji Oluniyi Olanrele, Salami Olasunkanmi Ismaila, Oyetunde Adeoye Adeaga, Oluseyi Afolabi Adeyemi, Akinwale Stephen Akintaro

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

The production planning of Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industries is a challenging task due to uncertainty and risk. This study proposes a novel algorithm that combines linear programming and Monte Carlo simulation methods to manage uncertainty and minimize costs in FMCG production planning. The algorithm uses simulation to forecast the various possible production units and quantify the impact of risk and uncertainty on each production decision. The output is an annual production plan that satisfies minimum customer requirements while optimizing profits. The proposed model was tested on an FMCG factory problem, and it was found to improve the company's expected profit by 2.06%, reduce variable costs by 7.65%, and decrease the contribution of inventory holding costs to the total system cost from 4.43% to 1.39%. The study highlights the high cost incurred due to inventory holding costs and demonstrates that the proposed model provides a more efficient approach to determining production and inventory quantities. The combination of linear programming and Monte Carlo simulation methods provides an efficient way to manage uncertainty and minimize costs while meeting customer requirements. These findings have important implications for FMCG production planning, and the proposed model can help companies make more informed decisions.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2023 International Conference on Science, Engineering and Business for Sustainable Development Goals, SEB-SDG 2023
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
ISBN (Electronic)9798350324785
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2023
Event2023 International Conference on Science, Engineering and Business for Sustainable Development Goals, SEB-SDG 2023 - Omu-Aran, Nigeria
Duration: 5 Apr 20237 Apr 2023

Publication series

Name2023 International Conference on Science, Engineering and Business for Sustainable Development Goals, SEB-SDG 2023

Conference

Conference2023 International Conference on Science, Engineering and Business for Sustainable Development Goals, SEB-SDG 2023
Country/TerritoryNigeria
CityOmu-Aran
Period5/04/237/04/23

Keywords

  • algorithm
  • fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG)
  • linear programming
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • uncertainty modelling

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