Reductions in Radiographic Progression in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Over Twenty-Five Years: Changing Contribution From Rheumatoid Factor in Two Multicenter UK Inception Cohorts

Objective: To assess the 5-year progression of erosions and joint space narrowing (JSN) and their associations with rheumatoid factor (RF) status in 2 large, multicenter, early rheumatoid arthritis cohorts, spanning 25 years. Methods: Radiographic joint damage was recorded using the Sharp/van der Heijde (SHS) method in the Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Study (ERAS), 1986–2001, and the Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Network (ERAN), 2002–2013. Mixed-effects negative binomial regression estimated changes in radiographic damage over 5 years, including erosions and JSN, separately. RF, along with age, sex, and baseline markers of disease activity were controlled for. Results: A total of 1,216 patients from ERAS and 446 from ERAN had radiographic data. Compared to ERAS, ERAN patients had a lower mean total SHS score at baseline (ERAN 6.2 versus ERAS 10.5; P < 0.001) and mean annual rate of change (ERAN 2.5 per year versus ERAS 6.9 per year; P < 0.001). Seventy-four percent of ERAS and 27% of ERAN patients progressed ≥5 units. Lower scores at baseline in ERAN were largely driven by reductions in JSN (ERAS 3.9 versus ERAN 1.2; P < 0.001), along with erosions (ERAS 1.9 versus ERAN 0.8; P < 0.001). RF was associated with greater progression in each cohort, but the absolute difference in mean annual rate of change for RF-positive patients was substantially higher for ERAS (RF positive 8.6 versus RF negative 5.1; P < 0.001), relative to ERAN (RF positive 2.0 versus RF negative 1.9; P = 0.855). Conclusion: Radiographic progression was shown to be significantly reduced between the 2 cohorts, and was associated with lower baseline damage and other factors, including changes in early disease-modifying antirheumatic drug use. The impact of RF status as a prognostic marker of clinically meaningful change in radiographic progression has markedly diminished in the context of more modern treatment.