Simulating HIV/AIDS for Africa: A web-based platform for improving service management

The HIV/AIDS epidemic remains a significant challenge in African countries where over 25 million people live with HIV/AIDS. They risk losing remarkable progress due to the cessation of funding by the United States, contributing about 73% of financial support. More than ever, decision-support tools are needed to improve service effectiveness and resource allocation while stopping the disease’s spread.

We developed a web-based simulation platform powered by a discrete event simulation approach. The patient pathway in HIV treatment, including services and resources, was captured with experts from three African countries (Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa). The pathway and model were further validated by experts in HIV treatment and management.

Data were collected from various sources, including hospitals and experts from African countries as well as the UNAIDS website, reports, and literature. The tool’s user-friendly interface makes the model easy to use, with pre-populated country-specific inputs (e.g., costs, incidence rates).

Moreover, dashboards - dedicated to demand and utilisation, prevention strategies, UNAIDS targets, human resources, and budgeting - with easy-to-interpret charts enable scenarios and intervention evaluation.

We ran scenarios on preventative therapies, improvements in the UNAIDS goal, and the introduction of mobile health applications. The results showed the impact of these interventions on key metrics, supporting decision-making and policy implementation.