The Role of Forwarding-Looking Price Expectations Data published by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) in explaining and forecasting U.K. house prices.

David  Gareth Thomas; David Bywaters

The Role of Forwarding-Looking Price Expectations Data published by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) in explaining and forecasting U.K. house prices.

David Gareth Thomas, David Bywaters

Hertfordshire Business School

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to make use of the forward-looking price expectations data published by the RICS to explain and forecast U.K. house prices, three-months ahead. The Nationwide index is used to test the performance of the RICS Survey based on the process of bounded rationality. An S-shaped logistic effect is shown to fit the data, assumed to be account of a diffusion path of expectations from surveyors to other agents.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	77-86
Number of pages	9
Journal	Territorio Italia land Administration, Cadastre, Real Estate
Issue number	1
Publication status	Published - Dec 2011

Keywords

House Prices, Expectations, Logistic, Forecasting

Cite this

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abstract = "The objective of this paper is to make use of the forward-looking price expectations data published by the RICS to explain and forecast U.K. house prices, three-months ahead. The Nationwide index is used to test the performance of the RICS Survey based on the process of bounded rationality. An S-shaped logistic effect is shown to fit the data, assumed to be account of a diffusion path of expectations from surveyors to other agents.",

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The Role of Forwarding-Looking Price Expectations Data published by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) in explaining and forecasting U.K. house prices. / Gareth Thomas, David; Bywaters, David.
In: Territorio Italia land Administration, Cadastre, Real Estate, No. 1, 12.2011, p. 77-86.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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AB - The objective of this paper is to make use of the forward-looking price expectations data published by the RICS to explain and forecast U.K. house prices, three-months ahead. The Nationwide index is used to test the performance of the RICS Survey based on the process of bounded rationality. An S-shaped logistic effect is shown to fit the data, assumed to be account of a diffusion path of expectations from surveyors to other agents.

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IS - 1

ER -

The Role of Forwarding-Looking Price Expectations Data published by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) in explaining and forecasting U.K. house prices.

Abstract

Keywords

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Cite this