Towards a Comprehensive Framework for Health Workforce Modelling: Addressing Gaps and Enhancing Decision-Making

Introduction - This study addresses a critical gap in healthcare workforce planning by developing an adaptable workforce modelling framework implemented as a user-friendly decision support tool (DST). Current approaches often lack the flexibility to accommodate real-world healthcare settings and fail to address detailed granular-level workforce requirements.

Methods - Our framework offers a standardised methodology for comprehensive workforce modelling, enhancing comparability and reliability across healthcare systems using a proposed data-driven continuous dynamic constrained optimisation (CDCO) modelling approach. It bridges the theoretical approach with practical application while incorporating granular-level factors and workforce dynamics to meet patient demand, ensure the quality of care, and enhance accessibility for timely decision-making.

Results - The framework’s applicability and reliability were demonstrated through collaboration with a high-demand NHS Trust in England, where substantial allied health professional services face persistent staffing shortages and pressing budgetary needs, with a focus on physiotherapist workforce planning. Model validation included benchmark comparisons against real-world data and the Trust’s internal results, as well as expert face validation. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to assess the robustness of the model outputs. Under 5.8% annual demand growth and the proposed skill-mix upgrade, maintaining an 81% demand met rate would require 8.99 additional WTE and increase the monthly full-establishment budget by $33,123. In comparison, achieving a 91% met rate would require 14.70 additional WTE and increase the monthly budget by $47,976.

Discussion - This study advances healthcare workforce planning by integrating fragmented modelling components into an adaptable framework and operationalising it through a user-friendly DST that accommodates multi-skilled workforce structures and supports more equitable access to healthcare services, subject to appropriate service-level data and stakeholder engagement.