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Impact of pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxes prevention programme on HIV burden and services in a low-resource setting: a simulation modelling approach. / Adeoti, Adekunle O.; Demir, Eren; Adeyemi, Shola; Yakutcan, Usame; Pascal Kengne, Andre ; Gbenga Kayode, Ayodele ; Aliyu, Ahmad ; Idika, Nneoma ; Isichei, Christian .

In: Pan African Medical Journal, Vol. 40, 17.11.2021.

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Adeoti, Adekunle O. ; Demir, Eren ; Adeyemi, Shola ; Yakutcan, Usame ; Pascal Kengne, Andre ; Gbenga Kayode, Ayodele ; Aliyu, Ahmad ; Idika, Nneoma ; Isichei, Christian . / Impact of pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxes prevention programme on HIV burden and services in a low-resource setting: a simulation modelling approach. In: Pan African Medical Journal. 2021 ; Vol. 40.

Bibtex

@article{c67d462ddbe54df08dddc438a0686442,
title = "Impact of pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxes prevention programme on HIV burden and services in a low-resource setting: a simulation modelling approach",
abstract = "Introduction: sub-Saharan African countries contribute substantially to the global HIV disease burden. Despite this burden, and the promises that prevention could deliver, the implementation and uptake of HIV prevention programmes are still low. The study used the decision support system model to explore the potential impacts of prevention implementation on HIV burden (incidence) and service delivery.Methods: an operational research technique known as discrete event simulation model was used to capture an individual patient´s pathways through the HIV care process from diagnosis to treatment and monitoring. The regular monitoring, over a 5-year period, including all the activities and resources utilized at each stage of the pathway were analysed, and the impact of increasing prevention measures for an HIV treatment service in a treatment centre in Nigeria was tested using the simulation model.Results: forty-three patients currently access the Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) and Post Exposure Prophylaxis (PEP) annually, with a 20% and 80% split in the number of patients offered PrEP and PEP, respectively. Scenarios-based on increasing the number of people offered PrEP and PEP from 43 to 250 with a 50/50 split were tested. The outputs revealed improved preventive care by averting new HIV cases, reduction in service demand and utilization, but an increase in the required human resource as well as financial burden. In the next 5 years, the cumulative averted HIV cases are expected to increase from 2 and 5 people (baseline) to 24 and 20 people for PrEP and PEP, respectively. The potentially averted 2 cases per infected persons based on the basic reproductive number of HIV.Conclusion: the effective implementation of PrEP/PEP programme offers an additional safety measure to prevent HIV transmission in at-risk individuals and possibility of ending HIV epidemic.",
author = "Adeoti, {Adekunle O.} and Eren Demir and Shola Adeyemi and Usame Yakutcan and {Pascal Kengne}, Andre and {Gbenga Kayode}, Ayodele and Ahmad Aliyu and Nneoma Idika and Christian Isichei",
year = "2021",
month = nov,
day = "17",
doi = "10.11604/pamj.2021.40.163.26486",
language = "English",
volume = "40",
journal = " Pan African Medical Journal",
issn = "1937-8688",
publisher = "Pan African Medical Journal",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impact of pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxes prevention programme on HIV burden and services in a low-resource setting: a simulation modelling approach

AU - Adeoti, Adekunle O.

AU - Demir, Eren

AU - Adeyemi, Shola

AU - Yakutcan, Usame

AU - Pascal Kengne, Andre

AU - Gbenga Kayode, Ayodele

AU - Aliyu, Ahmad

AU - Idika, Nneoma

AU - Isichei, Christian

PY - 2021/11/17

Y1 - 2021/11/17

N2 - Introduction: sub-Saharan African countries contribute substantially to the global HIV disease burden. Despite this burden, and the promises that prevention could deliver, the implementation and uptake of HIV prevention programmes are still low. The study used the decision support system model to explore the potential impacts of prevention implementation on HIV burden (incidence) and service delivery.Methods: an operational research technique known as discrete event simulation model was used to capture an individual patient´s pathways through the HIV care process from diagnosis to treatment and monitoring. The regular monitoring, over a 5-year period, including all the activities and resources utilized at each stage of the pathway were analysed, and the impact of increasing prevention measures for an HIV treatment service in a treatment centre in Nigeria was tested using the simulation model.Results: forty-three patients currently access the Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) and Post Exposure Prophylaxis (PEP) annually, with a 20% and 80% split in the number of patients offered PrEP and PEP, respectively. Scenarios-based on increasing the number of people offered PrEP and PEP from 43 to 250 with a 50/50 split were tested. The outputs revealed improved preventive care by averting new HIV cases, reduction in service demand and utilization, but an increase in the required human resource as well as financial burden. In the next 5 years, the cumulative averted HIV cases are expected to increase from 2 and 5 people (baseline) to 24 and 20 people for PrEP and PEP, respectively. The potentially averted 2 cases per infected persons based on the basic reproductive number of HIV.Conclusion: the effective implementation of PrEP/PEP programme offers an additional safety measure to prevent HIV transmission in at-risk individuals and possibility of ending HIV epidemic.

AB - Introduction: sub-Saharan African countries contribute substantially to the global HIV disease burden. Despite this burden, and the promises that prevention could deliver, the implementation and uptake of HIV prevention programmes are still low. The study used the decision support system model to explore the potential impacts of prevention implementation on HIV burden (incidence) and service delivery.Methods: an operational research technique known as discrete event simulation model was used to capture an individual patient´s pathways through the HIV care process from diagnosis to treatment and monitoring. The regular monitoring, over a 5-year period, including all the activities and resources utilized at each stage of the pathway were analysed, and the impact of increasing prevention measures for an HIV treatment service in a treatment centre in Nigeria was tested using the simulation model.Results: forty-three patients currently access the Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) and Post Exposure Prophylaxis (PEP) annually, with a 20% and 80% split in the number of patients offered PrEP and PEP, respectively. Scenarios-based on increasing the number of people offered PrEP and PEP from 43 to 250 with a 50/50 split were tested. The outputs revealed improved preventive care by averting new HIV cases, reduction in service demand and utilization, but an increase in the required human resource as well as financial burden. In the next 5 years, the cumulative averted HIV cases are expected to increase from 2 and 5 people (baseline) to 24 and 20 people for PrEP and PEP, respectively. The potentially averted 2 cases per infected persons based on the basic reproductive number of HIV.Conclusion: the effective implementation of PrEP/PEP programme offers an additional safety measure to prevent HIV transmission in at-risk individuals and possibility of ending HIV epidemic.

U2 - 10.11604/pamj.2021.40.163.26486

DO - 10.11604/pamj.2021.40.163.26486

M3 - Article

VL - 40

JO - Pan African Medical Journal

JF - Pan African Medical Journal

SN - 1937-8688

ER -